Word: downturn
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Nonetheless, the Reagan downturn has come rather swiftly. Three months ago a TIME-Yankelovich survey found that 43% of those polled expressed "doubts and reservations" about the President, while a solid 55% said that they felt Reagan was a "leader you can trust." Now 51% said they have doubts, while 48% still trust...
...voters still do not hold Reagan personally accountable for the recession. According to Yankelovich, 66% said they blamed Reagan himself either "not at all" or "only a little" for the economic downturn. Only 33% blamed him "a lot" or "fairly much," although this represents an increase of 8% since the December poll. At the same time 46% believe that the President's economic policy will help to curb inflation while only 21% said it will add to inflation...
...history and anguish-rather than a sensible description of what could happen in a modern U.S. economy. No one talks of a 50% drop in national production, or a 25% jobless rate-the experiences of the 1930s that gave the word depression its menacing ring. Indeed, if the current downturn ever approached such severity, the great majority of economists are confident that the Government could forestall a repeat. Says Martin Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research: "If we really found ourselves falling off a cliff, there is very little disagreement about how to get ourselves back...
Although no one calls the current slide anything more than a recession, it already threatens to become the most serious downturn since World War II. Lasl week the Labor Department announced that the unemployment rate rose in February to 8.8%, close to the postwar high of 9% that occurred in May 1975. The effects are still highly uneven: while unemployment in the construction and auto industries is at full-blown depression levels, the rates in such other fields as finance, publishing and Government are much lower. But the overall unemployment figure, says Deputy Treasury Secretary R.T. McNamar...
...great unknown hanging over the economy next year is the level of interest rates. The skyrocketing cost of money this year took the steam out of the economy and caused the recession. The business downturn is now reducing the cost of money, but the question is whether rates will start climbing back to their past heights when economic activity picks up after the middle of the year. Says Alan Greenspan: "The real economic issue is where does the second half of next year go, and the second half goes where interest rates...