Word: downturn
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...that damage may get, and how long it will last, is anybody's guess. TIME's Board of Economists last week rendered a mixed verdict: the downturn will proceed at least through the rest of this year, and on the whole will not be quite as violent as the one in 1973-75, though it may be worse in some specific respects-notably unemployment (see following story...
...economic experts saw some modest encouragement in the continuing strength of the world's other leading economies. During the 1973-75 downturn, nearly all industrial countries marched lockstep into a deep recession, knocking world trade flat and devastating export industries. Yet in the present situation only the U.S. and Britain are reeling. The economies of most of Continental Europe and Japan remain relatively buoyant, with inflation under greater control. This should help U.S. exports and give new strength to the American dollar. Said Heller: "One of the upbeat aspects of a downbeat economy is that real exports will improve...
...Leading Economic Indicators declined 4.8% in April, the largest monthly drop in the 32 years that the figures have been kept. Unemployment claims in mid-May rose more sharply than during any week since 1967. Productivity fell for the fifth consecutive quarter from January through March, the second longest downturn on record...
Administration officials are having an increasingly difficult time seeing silver linings. Treasury Secretary G. William Miller conceded that the downturn has been "quite steep," but then added that the worst of the recession "may be behind us." Miller's optimism, however, has a weak record. In September he proudly announced that the recession was "half over." At that time it had not even started. But despite the rapidly deteriorating economy, Miller steadfastly insisted last week that the Administration had no plans at present to introduce a tax cut to stimulate business. He said that fighting inflation must continue...
...budgets are among the first victims of a recession, as companies attempt to cut costs by slowing their promotions. Total advertising expenditures are expected to rise to more than $55 billion this year, which represents a modest 2% gain over 1979. But agencies fear the impact of the economic downturn. Stuart Upson, chairman of Manhattan's Dancer Fitzgerald Sample and outgoing chairman of the American Association of Advertising Agencies, predicts a "rough recession-rough on agencies, its people and profits...