Word: downturn
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...conflicting statements over whether or not the President would support a tax cut if the economy went into a freefall. The confusion arose when Carter's anti-inflation adviser, Alfred Kahn, whose outspoken statements in the past have often caused the Administration embarrassment, declared that a steep economic downturn could well force the Government to pump up spending by cutting taxes...
TIME'S economists see a milder downturn and still higher prices...
...board's consensus forecast that a recession for 1980 now looks to be a somewhat milder affair than the 2.4% overall slump that had been predicted as recently as last December. Recession is certainly painful for anyone thrown out of work, but without at least a temporary economic downturn there is no real hope of slowing the price spiral...
Whatever the motivation, the spree shows no immediate signs of slackening. Retail sales in January rose an unexpectedly sharp 2.3% over the December level, and the board now foresees no downturn in the first quarter at all. After a very mild 1.7% overall decline, the members expect a return to real growth by early 1981. Indeed, some board members, including Wenglowski and Pechman, are beginning to wonder whether anything worthy of being called a recession is likely to develop...
...Administration rosily predicts only 10.4% inflation this year, but its 1979 forecast of 7.4% price rises causes doubts about the reliability of the White House crystal ball. Most private analysts see prices increasing at about 11% this year, assuming that a mild economic downturn occurs. Without any recession, inflation may repeat last year's 13%. Reacting to the worry that worse economic news is yet to come, bond prices last week slumped dramatically and yields rose to levels even higher than those set after the Federal Reserve's credit tightening last October...