Word: downturn
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...showed business continuing to perk along despite attempts to dampen inflation by curbing growth. Prices charged by wholesalers rose another 1% in October, while the index of "leading" indicators, which is supposed to foreshadow future economic trends, rose by a strong 0.8% in September. The net effect: the mild downturn that both the Administration and the Federal Reserve desire seems to have been postponed indefinitely...
...Carter Administration's effort to ease the nation into a short and shallow business downturn in order to slow inflation increasingly resembles the attempts in 1916 by Russian noblemen to kill Rasputin: they fed Tsarina Alexandra's mystic poisoned teacakes and wine, then shot him three times, and finally had to drown him in St. Petersburg's icy Neva River. Despite record-high interest rates, the long awaited recession still refuses to materialize definitively...
...wallets and pocketbooks, as they are expected to, inventories of unsold goods will rise and business will fall off sharply. Even Treasury Secretary G. William Miller, who had previously been happy-talking the economy by predicting that the recession was already half over, last week admitted that the coming downturn might be deeper than he had thought and warned that "strains and dislocation are still ahead...
Carter Administration officials are remarkably untalkative about the record rates, evidently in hopes that the developing downturn will become known as the Volcker Recession rather than as a product of Jimmynomics. Indeed, voters do seem concerned about the climbing cost of money. One night last week, when Volcker arrived at Washington's Kennedy Center for a preview showing of Tom Stoppard's play Night and Day, a woman approached him and said plaintively, "Please, don't let interest rates stay high for too long." Replied the Federal Reserve chairman, as he removed the cellophane from...
...Sometimes I understand this economy and sometimes I don't," laments Okun, senior fellow of the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. "I was dead wrong," he admits, in expecting unemployment to go up in September. Instead it dropped, indicating that the economy was far more resistant to a downturn that might check price boosts than had been supposed. Consequently, though Okun is usually vehemently opposed to a policy of relying primarily on money-supply policy to combat inflation, he proclaims himself "not horrified" by Volcker's actions. Okun fears that "interest rates could become so unstable...