Word: downturn
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Answer: Hold fast to that stringent policy. Let the recession come, if need be. More than that, aim for the downturn to be followed not by a vigorous rebound in production and jobs but by a year or two of only moderate growth...
...would a recession in 1979 be likely to hurt the industry much. Cosmetics sales traditionally continue rising during a mild economic downturn, and dip only slightly in a severe one. Some top-of-the-line items benefit from hard times: a man who wants to give a woman a stunning gift but decides that a $150 handbag, say, would leave his wallet too thin, may select a $50 bottle of perfume. In the low-priced field, remarks Bergerac, any woman can spend $2.25 for a lipstick that will brighten her mood as well as her appearance. Says he: "When things...
...Carter's surprise announcement, Otto Eckstein, head of Data Resources Inc., a computerized forecasting firm, was still not ready to forecast a downturn. His current view: "We now predict recession. At these [interest] rates you are going to drive down housing and construction." Specifically, Eckstein's DRI estimates that there is a 55% chance of recession. Milton Friedman, guru of the conservative monetarist school of economists, gloomily asserts, "We have gone beyond the point of restoring the economy without a recession...
...high interest rates' causing a slowdown in housing. Then; came reduced consumer spending and cutbacks in business outlays for plant and equipment. Even if the prospective recession follows that traditional pattern, though, most economists now believe it will be comparatively mild and not a repetition of the severe downturn...
...destined no matter what the Administration may do. "There is no such thing as an uninterrupted period of expansion," says James H. Lorie, a professor of business administration at the University of Chicago. "The current expansion is 3½ years old. So it's past middle age. A downturn has got to be next." Some observers feel that it would be better to have a recession sooner rather than later. Says Washington University's Murray Weidenbaum, also a member of TIME'S Board of Economists: "We've now taken the painful medicine that will both slow...