Word: downturn
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...their latest meeting members of TIME's Board of Economists (see box) pointed to a clear reason for the semantic fog. The U.S. is experiencing something unusual: a business downturn that is likely to be sufficiently long and painful to meet some definitions of recession, but not severe enough to bring the drastic declines in production, employment and profits associated with unmistakable recessions...
Many businessmen would feel the pangs of any such downturn, but the pain would be mild compared with what happened in the four full-sized recessions of the past two decades. Industrial production dropped as much as 15%, corporate profits fell 21% to 30%, and unemployment rates hit peaks of 6% to 8%. Heller says it is a toss-up whether the situation the board majority foresees should be called a recession; he suggests "mini-micro recession." The important thing, adds Pechman, is that 'the U.S. is experiencing "a policy-induced pause" because of severe monetary and fiscal restraint...
Such cancellation's are not uncommon. Fox said. General Electric canceled its appointment several weeks ago-according to Fox, because of the strike and a downturn in business G. E. could not afford to hire anyone this year...
...first nine months of this year, overall retail sales are only 4% above their 1968 pace-less than the rate of price increases. Even in Southern California, where department-store sales are generally up, one discount-store manager, Paul Hulse of Redondo Beach's Hartfield-Zodys, detects a downturn in sales of color televisions, luxury refrigerators and stoves. To meet the competition of discount stores, Sears, Roebuck has opened some 175 of its 825 stores for business on Sunday. Retailers-and automakers-can take heart from a historical pattern detected in a University of Michigan study. Over the past...
...raise prices saw his earnings drop. The consumer who borrowed for a spending spree is paying off his debt in cheapened dollars; the consumer who saved instead is holding dollars that have depreciated. Today most economists believe that inflationary expectations can be conquered by a mild downturn in business. At a time of no growth, they argue, businessmen who hiked prices would lose markets. Complaints from customers annoyed by past increases last week caused Bethlehem Steel and Armco Steel to cut prices on some important products...