Word: downturn
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Surviving a Slowdown. Burns has suggested that a recession might not be so bad. He has often said that the U.S. can survive a business slowdown, or even downturn, without necessarily incurring a sharp increase in unemployment. He reasons that the economy has become service-oriented, and that service workers are less likely to be laid off than those in manufacturing. Even in manufacturing, he thinks, shortages of skilled labor have been so severe that companies will continue to hoard workers rather than fire them as sales and profits decline...
Capital Change. Despite all this, however, there are other signals that show a downturn in the overall economy. Retail sales leveled off months ago, and auto sales have turned sluggish. New orders for durable goods declined 3% in June. For the first time in eleven months, manufacturers were filling old orders faster than new business was coming in. So far in 1969, the gross national product has risen at a real annual rate of only 2.4%, compared with the 6% increase of 1968's first half. The real growth of the nation's economy has moved down...
...Federal Reserve Board, which has been desperately looking for evidence that its restrictive money policy has produced some slowdown. But New York's First National City Bank warned in its latest economic letter that, "to hold fast to a restrictive policy until the signs of an economic downturn are unmistakable means that the policy will have gone too far." Reason: economic indicators do not clearly signal a recession until after it has begun...
...Nixon Administration hopes to decelerate the economy gradually, avoiding the kind of overzealous monetary restraint that helped bring on the last real recession in 1959-60 and contributed to Nixon's defeat by John F. Kennedy. The more immediate danger, however, is that any sign of an economic downturn may tempt the Government to let up too soon on the anti-inflation campaign...
...HEAD AND SHOULDERS REVERSAL is a pattern that signals a nasty downturn. If the right shoulder rises higher than the head, chartists say that investors should hold on. If it does not pass the high, chartists advise them to sell -or risk a plunge below the neckline...