Word: downturning
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Dates: during 1980-1989
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...contention that the U.S might be moving into a recession. It showed that industrial production declined .6% in September, falling for the first time since the last recession ended in November 1982. Economist James Tobin of Yale University warned that the Federal Reserve should be concerned about a new downturn. Levy Economic Forecasts of Chappaqua, N.Y., proclaimed that the recession was already here...
Over the past century, expansions have lasted four years on average, and the current recovery has not yet passed its second birthday. Most private forecasters agree that a downturn is not imminent. Said Economist Barry Bosworth of Washington's Brookings Institution: "The private economy is strong enough to ensure that the U.S. will not have a recession soon." Nonetheless, a slowdown in growth is probably inevitable. Many businesses overestimated what their summer sales would be and built up excess inventories. Companies will now moderate their production to get inventories more in line with sales. Data Resources, the Lexington, Mass...
...colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board. As always, they will try to strike a balance between promoting growth and keeping inflation from accelerating. Many economists are confident that Volcker will let interest rates continue to fall if the economy shows further signs of slipping into a downturn...
...that outlook sounds, it may be overly optimistic. The CBO made the questionable assumption that no recession would occur for the rest of the decade. History shows, however, that over the past century the economy has suffered a downturn every four years on average, and few economists believe that the business cycle has been repealed. A survey conducted last month by the National Association of Business Economists revealed that 95% of the members polled expect a recession to strike by 1986 at the latest. When asked what would be the causes of the downturn, 79% of the NABE economists blamed...
...Beyond that period, though, the outlook is clouded by the unpredictable course of the surging U.S. economy, because high interest rates plus towering budget and trade deficits make the American expansion appear unsustainable. So instead of relaxing and enjoying the pickup, Europeans are now fearful about a new U.S. downturn and its impact on both themselves and the Third World debtor nations, whose inability or unwillingness to repay loans could bring on an international financial crisis...