Word: downturns
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...agreed that an economic downturn is both inevitable and necessary to curb inflation, which is surging to scary levels. The January Consumer Price Index, released last week, rose at an annual rate of 11.4%. Leading the price parade was food, up at an 18.2% rate. Contends David Grove, a former IBM vice president who heads his own economic consulting firm: " To get inflation under control, everyone has to sacrifice. There has to be a willingness by the public to forgo tax relief, tolerate tighter money, and not put tremendous pressure on the Government to step up spending for pet programs...
Looming larger than all these questions is the recent souring of U.S.-Soviet relations. That trend has been greatly worsened by Carter's sudden normalization of relations with Moscow's rivals in Peking. It took another downturn last week when Soviet advisers were reported to have played a role in the Shootout that killed the U.S. ambassador in Afghanistan. The State Department sent a sharp protest to the Soviets. Despite these strains, Carter has assigned top priority to concluding the long delayed SALT II and meeting with Soviet Communist Party Chief Leonid Brezhnev...
...index fell 0.5 per cent in December, the same decline as in November, a spokesman for the department said Wednesday. Economists have often interpreted a three-month decline in the index as one sign of economic downturn...
...Neill has told Carter that if unemployment (currently 5.9%) reaches 6.3%, the President had better have an economic stimulus plan ready. "If you don't," O'Neill warns, "we will." But others feel that inflation has gone too far to be neglected once a downturn begins...
...anticipate a recession next year"-though he added that warnings of one "can become a self-fulfilling prophecy." But among the ten members of TIME'S Board of Economists, only University of Minnesota Professor Walter Heller will give even fifty-fifty odds on avoiding a downturn. The others all agree that there will be a recession, but that it will be mild and brief, lasting only two or three quarters and at worst dragging real G.N.P. down at an annual rate of only 1% to 2%. All this will dent inflation-but only a bit. To ensure that inflation...