Word: downturns
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...fitting end to what has been a remarkably bubbly period for London. Over the past decade and a half, ever since its last protracted downturn, the British capital has transformed itself into Europe's indispensable financial center. Leaving Frankfurt and Paris in the dust and encouraged by the policies of Gordon Brown, the current British Prime Minister, it has become a magnet for people, jobs and investment from around the world. The big U.S. banks made London their international hub, and the major banks of continental Europe moved much of their trading and investment-banking operations there. About...
...coming downturn is already shaping up as different from--and tougher than--some previous ones. That's because the financial crisis is taking place at the same time as a real estate downturn, a conjunction that is unusual; in the past, one has often followed the other, but it's rare for them to happen simultaneously. And the problems are being exacerbated by an explosion of household debt in Britain. Buoyed by rising property prices, households ratcheted up their borrowing to a massive 173% of disposable income, vs. 106% in 1995. That's way above even that paragon of profligacy...
...gloom descends, a question is starting to make the rounds--one that London hasn't really asked itself before: Has London become too reliant on a single industry, putting all its eggs into one volatile basket? "Obviously people see it as a risk, and if there's a prolonged downturn, it will become an issue," says Andrew Goodwin, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, who nonetheless believes that while "there is a concern about dependency, financial services have done well historically...
...Grill, where a burger made from "Kobe" beef raised on a farm in north Wales will set you back $33. At the Nevada Street Deli, which serves up smoky cheese from County Cork and freshly made poached-salmon sandwiches, owner Laura Heap says she's already noticed a downturn in business. "I get a lot of local moms, and they're spending less," she says. "Whereas they used to buy their eggs and bread, now they're just buying a cup of tea." Heap, who opened the shop less than a year ago, has dropped her prices...
...Bank trader turned Cambridge University researcher, measured the naturally occurring steroids in 17 British male traders over time and found high levels of testosterone during bull markets and of cortisol during volatility. Cortisol helps the body deal with threatening situations. But prolonged exposure to it, as during a lengthy downturn, makes people irrationally fearful, so when confronted with neutral situations--say, that their spouse would like the leaves raked--they react as if threatened. In other words, men can get funny when they're losing money. Even those who aren't traders...