Word: downturns
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Pocketbook issues loom large in Spaniards' minds as they prepare to vote amid gathering signs of an economic downturn. Unemployment reached 8.6% in January, the first quarterly rise since 2003. And though most of Zapatero's term was marked by continued economic expansion - begun under his Popular Party predecessor, José María Aznar - up to one-quarter of GDP growth over the past seven years has been linked to housing starts. The resulting housing glut stemmed above all from overconfidence about tourism and speculation on second-home purchases. But José García-Montalvo, an economics professor...
...pound and making British goods harder to sell on world markets. The strategy cooled inflation by cheapening imports and killing off demand generally, although it also threw a record number of British companies into bankruptcy and millions of workers out of jobs. Since June 1979, when the downturn began, industrial production has slumped 11.6% (vs. an average fall of only 4% for other industrial powers). There are some encouraging signs. Bank lending rates are now in the 10% range, down from 17% in 1980, and mortgages have fallen from 15% to a more affordable 10%. Productivity...
...those from handbags. Financially, the strategy is working. "They are performing extremely well, despite the slowdown of the general consumer market," says luxury analyst Yasuhiro Yamaguchi of UBS in London. "Coach, Tiffany and Burberry are all saying they've started to see slowdown, but Gucci is resisting the cyclical downturn and delivering double-digit growth...
YOUR JOB: Learn to earn. In a 21st century recession, the jobs lost during the downturn aren't necessarily the same ones that appear during the rebound, so be ready for a career switch. Fast-growing fields include health care, postsecondary education and systems analysis. You might also aim for companies that do business in the public sector. "Governments play a counter-cyclical role at a time like this," says Jared Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute...
...that some people and some countries are in far better shape to weather a slowdown than others. Right now, the U.S. isn't one of them: with our trade deficits and federal budget deficits, we may be more vulnerable than other economies to the effects of a broad global downturn. And so whatever happens in the markets this year, you probably will not feel as house-proud as you did two years ago. Someone you know will be looking for a new job. And gas won't be getting much cheaper. The Fed can't magically make all that...