Word: downturns
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It’s an attitude whose authority may have been shaken by the recent economic downturn, Marglin notes. “Non-economists have much less faith in economists and in mainstream economics than they did two years ago,” he says...
Historically, real estate lags behind an economic recovery. In the 1991 recession, it took the industry 14 months to rebound after the recession's end, and in the 2001 downturn, it took 29 months for the sector to recover, says Bob Bach, chief economist with Grubb & Ellis Co., a commercial real estate services and investment company. Even if the current recession ended in the second quarter, it could take anywhere from 14 to 29 months for real estate to bounce back, says Bach. Unemployment, which is expected to hit 10.5% in 2010, exacerbates the situation, he says. All of this...
Smith said he would much rather be at Harvard—where administrators have bluntly addressed the economic downturn and reacted appropriately with cutbacks—than at other institutions that have yet to realize the reality of fiscal stringencies...
...banks could lose up to $53 billion next year if they fail to get rid of their toxic assets. For Pat McCloughan, a Dublin-based economist, the looming bankruptcy threat outweighs all other concerns. "Unfortunately, developers going out of business and home repossessions are an inevitable part of [the downturn]. But a much bigger problem would be if one of the big banks was to fail. That would have massive repercussions for a small country like Ireland," he says. (Read more about the economic slump in Ireland...
...China's stimulus package - the equivalent of 14% of GDP - focused on large infrastructure projects, work often done by large state-owned construction firms. Similarly, the lending spree was primarily directed at state-owned enterprises that offer banks an implicit guarantee that the government will cover outstanding debts. The downturn in exports mainly hurt small- and medium-sized firms in the south, which are usually private owned. The result is that while profits are climbing for large, state-owned firms, the private sector is lagging. "The biggest challenge for the authorities is that the private sector has yet to fully...