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When Alan Greenspan merely suggested that he was open to the idea of cutting interest rates a couple of weeks ago, the stock market went wild: the Dow posted its third biggest single-day point gain; the tech-laden NASDAQ truly soared, rising a record 10.5%. Deep into a bear market, was Greenspan trying to stanch the slide...
...With just five trading days left in the year, the Dow is down 10 percent, the biggest annual drop since 1977. The S&P 500 is off 14 percent, the most since 1974. After coughing up another 7 percent Wednesday, the NASDAQ's losses have hit 43 percent, which makes 2000 quite simply the tech index's worst year ever. For tech stocks, we're not talking bear, we're talking crash - a steady slide that started in March and is only picking up speed at year's end. All fall, traders talked about the need for "capitulation"; now they...
...five straight years until this one, NASDAQ has averaged 42 percent gains. The Dow has averaged 25 percent annually. And all that happened in 2000 was that tech stocks, from networkers like Cisco Systems to software makers like Microsoft to e-tailing paper tigers like Amazon.com, have at long last confronted the reality of reality. The Internet Utopia, a world of limitless investors, limitless infrastructure, limitless customers and limitless productivity gains, is on a slower timetable than we hoped...
...Take the tech stocks out, and a funny thing happens. The S&P is down only 4 percent for 2000. The Dow, without year-old components Microsoft and Intel, is up 12 percent for the year. And the NASDAQ? Well, it's all tech stocks. But if you got in six years ago, you're still up 170 percent. The great tech crash of 2000 is just a little...
...Greenspan will do what he can, which is cut interest rates, and it's likely to work. He can't bring back the tech sector to its former glory, and neither can Bush, but a few interest-rate cuts might juice up the Dow and put some money back in the system for business borrowers. For Bush, the prospect of a big across-the-board tax cut is more attractive than it's been in years, but he'd better make sure it's fiscally sound enough get a few kind words from Greenspan, who got the inflation-hawk bond...