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Since plummeting last week in the aftermath of the terrorist attack, U.S. stock markets have recovered slightly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been rising steadily since Sept. 21, when it fell to just below 8,000, its lowest point in years...
...public comments were mindless cheerleading about the strength of the economy, the lack of an imminent recession, and some very bad advice: "The people who bought today are going to be happy people," he said on opening Monday. "The people who sold will be sorry they did it." The Dow lost another 700-odd points that week, and hasn?t exactly sprung back since...
Well, here we are again at the bottom. In the two sessions since its first week back and worst week since the Depression, the Dow is doing another ball-bearing bounce, gaining 368 points Monday and 56 points Tuesday before settling in at the 8600 level. It doesn?t look a lot like the turning point, considering most of the buying was by institutional investors merely gathering up some of the stocks they?d dropped Friday ahead of a possible weekend war. The rest was some very choosy bargain-hunting...
...trouble for bottom-watchers is, this all makes a lot of sense. Before the attacks, when a mini-recession seemed imminent, the Dow?s trend line was slowly churning lower, punctuated by the occasional technical bounce, in the 9500-10,500 range. Now it?s doing the same thing, in the 8000-9000 range. Can anyone honestly say that what happened that Tuesday wasn?t worth 1,500 points or so? Until Wall Street can grasp some evidence of a treatment equal to the wound - or a healing period equal to the pain - it?s hardly likely to want...
...jibes with that bit of Buffett wisdom. Ned Davis Research looked at 28 crises dating back to the fall of France to the Nazis and found that in 25 of those cases, an initial market decline turned to solid gains within six months. The median initial decline in the Dow was 4.6%, followed by a rally of 12.1%. So maybe it's time to relearn an old lesson: Buy the dip. It hasn't worked lately. But now that it's no longer popular, it just might be smart...