Word: dri
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Dates: during 1980-1989
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...dri up your tears...
...dozens of outfits that failed to anticipate the sharpness of the recession. But Allen Sinai, senior vice president of the big Massachusetts firm, attributes that shortcoming to factors that range from unexpected Federal Reserve shifts to a misreading of the role of foreign trade. In any event, says Sinai, DRI usually assigns its forecasts no more than a 50%-to-55% probability of being right. Adds he: "Clients who have left us because of mistaken calls can be counted on the fingers of one hand...
...Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) model has been used to predict the prospects for the U.S. economy if present policies are little changed but there is a modest tax reform in 1981 reducing personal and corporate taxes. It is not a worst-case model, rather just a trend projection. For 1980-85 it sees GNP growth at 2.7%, productivity growth at 1.4%, core inflation up as actual inflation (CPI) drops, and long-term interest rates at 10.34%--all figures worse than the traditional performance level of the U.S. economy...
Consider a 3% increase in the effective tax credit and a two year cut in the average tax lifetime of producers' plant and equipment. The DRI model suggests such measures would give a considerable stimulus to investment. By 1985, compared with the baseline case, capital stock would be up 3.1%, level of potential GNP up 2%, productivity up 2.4%, and core inflation improved by 0.8%. This is obviously not the entire solution, but it makes a dent...