Word: dri
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...considering which candidate should next occupy the governor's office, the capacity to change the status quo should be foremost in everyone's minds. Quite simply, drastic times require drastic measures; and if Data Resources Inc./McGraw Hill (DRI), the nation's most respected economic forecasters, are to be believed, these are indeed the most dire of times...
Weld's support for Question 3, the Citizens for Limited Taxation (CLT) tax and fee rollback intiative, raises further questions about both his economic judgment and his confidence in his ability to restructure state government. According to DRI, "passage and implementation of the CLT intiative would render the current Massachusetts recession longer than it needs to be, and the negative impacts will linger at least through fiscal year...
...dri up your tears...
...dozens of outfits that failed to anticipate the sharpness of the recession. But Allen Sinai, senior vice president of the big Massachusetts firm, attributes that shortcoming to factors that range from unexpected Federal Reserve shifts to a misreading of the role of foreign trade. In any event, says Sinai, DRI usually assigns its forecasts no more than a 50%-to-55% probability of being right. Adds he: "Clients who have left us because of mistaken calls can be counted on the fingers of one hand...
Consider a 3% increase in the effective tax credit and a two year cut in the average tax lifetime of producers' plant and equipment. The DRI model suggests such measures would give a considerable stimulus to investment. By 1985, compared with the baseline case, capital stock would be up 3.1%, level of potential GNP up 2%, productivity up 2.4%, and core inflation improved by 0.8%. This is obviously not the entire solution, but it makes a dent...