Word: dubai
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...Obama Administration is hard at work courting Russian and Chinese support for toughening up the U.N. sanctions regime against Iran. But winning the cooperation of Dubai might be equally important in the effort to squeeze Tehran. The Emirate may have no vote on the Security Council, but Iran's tiny neighbor is widely regarded as the easiest route for smuggling illicit goods into the Islamic Republic...
Iran has for years skirted sanctions by establishing a complex network of export operations along Dubai's quaysides, which are capable of shipping almost anything to Iran, just 100 miles across the Persian Gulf. Walk along the Dubai Creek wharf on any morning, and you'll see mountains of goods stacked in boxes, ready to be loaded onto boats bound for Iran. Most of the contents - everything from books to clothes - are legitimate, and violate no U.S. or international sanctions, which until now have focused narrowly on entities believed to be involved in Iran's nuclear program. "To the extent...
Despite the tensions, the dynastic tussle is likely to be veiled. Issues of succession in conservative gulf kingdoms are customarily dealt with behind firmly closed doors, and Abu Dhabi - more traditional than its showy neighbor and U.A.E. constituent, Dubai - is hypersensitive about its image and extremely unlikely to let any split within its royal family become public. ADIA's holdings are unlikely to be affected, primarily because Abu Dhabi's wealth is still Abu Dhabi's wealth regardless of who manages its sovereign fund, and because its investments rarely exceed 5% stakes in any given company...
...whoever assumes the helm of ADIA will be of keen interest to Dubai, according to Davidson. Apart from the troubles with the Burj Khalifa, debt-laden Dubai received a $10 billion bailout late last year from Abu Dhabi to pay off the debts of some of its most troubled state-run companies. "Dubai will be hoping that whoever replaces [Sheik Ahmed] will be someone who is more open to assisting Dubai, rather than this drip-feed of financial assistance Abu Dhabi has been giving Dubai, little by little, humiliating them every step of the way," Davidson says. Sheik Ahmed...
...Dubai's ruler, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, might be pinning his hopes on his son-in-law Sheik Mansour, who is one of the Abu Dhabi crown prince's full brothers. Davidson says "there's no doubt" that he's the one member of the al-Nahayan clan that Dubai would like to see take charge. But Sheik Mansour already controls IPIC. Will he be given the reins of both of the emirate's massive kitties? It's improbable but not impossible, especially in a country where too much is never enough...