Word: ecksteins
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...Inflation. In the longer run, members of the TIME board foresee some more serious threats to the recovery. One is the resurgence of inflation from a roughly 5% annual rate last spring to July's 15.4%. Though no one expects prices to keep rising at that clip, Otto Eckstein figures they will go up at a rate of 10% or more for the rest of this year. The 7%-to-8% price rise that most members foresee for the coming year pleases no one. Sprinkel considers that an argument for pursuing only moderately expansive monetary and fiscal policies...
Many economists outside the Government, meanwhile, fear that the June-July surge in living costs means the U.S. is in for what Data Resources Inc. President Otto Eckstein calls "a new wave of inflation"; he expects it to last for six to twelve months. The experts' main dispute seems to be over the reasons for that wave. Though all agree that crop failures played a role, Brookings Institution Economist Arthur Okun cites such "self-inflicted wounds" as the Soviet grain sales and the coming abrupt decontrol of oil prices at the end of this month. Monetarists argue that...
Some other surveys point to a similar, though much less dramatic bottoming-out of the profits decline. Working from such data as sales volume and the percentage of industrial capacity in use, rather than from a sampling of corporation reports to stockholders, Data Resources Inc.'s president Otto Eckstein estimates that second-quarter after-tax earnings of all U.S. companies rose 3.4% above the first three months. Standard & Poor's Corp. calculates a modest 3.7% decline. Still, S. & P. Economist Richard Scruggs believes the second quarter probably marked "the end of the drop" in corporate earnings...
...money supply at an annual rate of 5% to 7½% over the next year or so, and insists that that will provide enough stimulation to reduce the unemployment rate during the next year "to 7½%, possibly lower." Critics such as Walter Heller, Arthur Okun and Otto Eckstein, all members of TIME'S Board of Economists, believe a faster money expansion is needed to hold interest rates steady, speed up production and bring joblessness down more swiftly. If interest rates continue rising, Burns and the Reserve Board will be faced with a wrenching choice: let the climb continue...
...historical record, capitalism clearly is more enriching?in every major way. Capitalism, says Eckstein, "is the only engine that has been developed so far that encourages people to be highly innovative, to develop new products and processes." Profit-seeking capitalists have developed all the vital machines of "postindustrial" society. In contrast, centrally managed economies have rarely done well at developing civilian high-technology industry?largely because inventors lack incentive. In socialist economies the same lack has led to appalling shoddiness in many of the services that provide life's amenities...