Word: ecksteins
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...ahead of us," said Herbert Stein, chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers. In current context, he rates as an optimist. The Labor Department reported last week that retail prices in October rose at an annual rate of 9.6%, almost triple the September pace, and Otto Eckstein, a member of TIME'S Board of Economists, warned that inflation in the next three to six months will be "unbelievably...
...Otto Eckstein, professor of Economics and president of Data Resources, Inc., had Data Resources stick it all into the computer recently and his tell-all computer boldly predicted that the United States could survive the energy crisis without severe disruptions to industrial production or employment...
Still, a lot depends upon the weather this winter--and Eckstein's computer can't forecast that. The wooly caterpillar--perhaps the most accurate weather forecaster in recent years--is said to have had especially thick rings this year, indicating a reversal in the warming trend of the past few winters. If the caterpillar is right, the nation could face very serious fuel problems in coming months...
...gross national product would slow from 6% in 1973 to 2% or so next year. Those members who were willing last week to gaze into the future prophesied that the boycott would trim at least 1% from their earlier forecasts of real growth. Harvard's Otto Eckstein, head of Data Resources Inc., believes that the G.N.P. will increase by 1.6% instead of 2.6% next year, assuming that the Arabs relent by April 1. But Alan Greenspan says that even if the oil resumes its flow by then, the shortages will have already done enough to prevent the economy from...
...Heller agrees that the petroleum squeeze alone will add 1% or more to inflation, but he pegs the consumer-price increases at 6% to 7% in the first half of 1974, dropping to 5% to 6% in the second half-if the boycott ends in three months or so. Eckstein fixes the inflation rate somewhat higher: 7% to 7.5% for the year. Moreover, the oil shortage, by adding all kinds of new inefficiencies to tasks ranging from selling new cars to keeping assembly lines running round-the-clock, could compound a disturbing decline in worker productivity-already a major factor...