Word: ecksteins
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Harvard's Otto Eckstein and IBM Vice President David Grove both use complex computer programs in making their estimates-and arrive at strikingly close predictions. Eckstein forecasts an increase "between $99 billion and $100 billion," while Grove estimates an advance of $102 billion...
Granting these conditions, what is the major factor likely to cause a steep economic rise? Most economists expect that it will be an upsurge in consumer spending, which has been sluggish for two years. Eckstein foresees a $60 billion jump in consumer spending, an increase averaging more than $1,000 per U.S. family. The spending increase will be brought about in part by the President's proposed tax stimulants, which were liberalized by the House Ways and Means Committee last week (see page 27). Next year, a family of four earning $10,000 a year is scheduled...
Inflation Down. Many other factors should contribute to the G.N.P. surge. Eckstein predicts that businessmen wil increase their inventories by $9.5 billion v. $3.5 billion this year. Taking advantage of the investment tax credit, businessmen should also lift their capital spending by $7 billion. And because of a backlog in demand, a rise in the housing industry should add a further $6 billion to G.N.P. growth. Besides all this, state and local government spending should go up at normal rates of about $13 billion...
...jump to 6¼%; meanwhile, the inflation rate will shrink from this year's 4.7% to 3%. If those results are achieved, the U.S. economy will expand faster next year than at any time since the mid-'60s. One bread-and-butter result, predict Heller, Grove and Eckstein, will be a reduction in the unemployment rate from the current...
IMPORT SURCHARGE. Otto Eckstein predicts that "the import surcharge will encourage a worldwide revaluation of currencies, particularly by Japan and the Common Market. Now the U.S. can really become competitive in trade, and it is the efficient companies-here and abroad-that will win." On the other hand, Robert Triffin issues a warning that: "There is a real danger that a trade war will break out. The Common Market has a deficit in trade with the U.S., and the import surcharge can only deepen...