Word: econometrician
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...Economic Advisers' forecast of a 4.7% G.N.P. growth was a hopeful near-point above the actual 3.8%, and Chase Econometrics' estimate of 7.4% unemployment a gloomy plateau above the actual 6%.) The most meticulous scientific methods of forecasting economics-so says one of the foremost prophets, Boston Econometrician Otto Eckstein-produce results with errors only 35% to 40% smaller than those arising from careful guesstimating. Perhaps unnecessarily, Eckstein adds: "There's plenty of room for humility." The humbling failure of scientists to predict surely either the course of nature (as in the weather) or cultural dynamics...
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