Word: economice
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What might help us better use economic forecasts, then, is to more explicitly take into account the limits that come with any forecast. You wouldn't find an economist publishing a paper in a journal without margins of error around the data - and yet we routinely drop such nuance when...
That may sound like a cop-out. At least until you consider how many other economic forecasters got it wrong. Dozens of states have found themselves with budget shortfalls, some quite massive, partly because economists weren't ratcheting down expectations of tax revenue nearly fast enough. In late November, the...
The fundamental problem is that economic models - series of equations meant to describe how different parts of the economy fit together - depend on historical data. If you want to know how high unemployment is going to be six months from now, you start with how high it is today. If...
One way to compensate is to pay attention to a broader range of forecasts. That's why there's no shortage of publishing and financial firms surveying groups of economists, presenting all of their opinions as "consensus" forecasts. A 2003 study by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta...
There's an easy way to represent this visually: the fan chart. What starts as a line quickly becomes a blurry fan-shaped region, underscoring that as time marches forward, the variable being forecast falls into an ever broader range of possibilities. "The more you think in terms of distribution...