Word: economist
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...using these last days to launch attacks on the credibility of the upcoming polls. Few, however, expect it to work. "S.B.Y.'s popularity has gone up and down the past year along with the rise and fall of prices for fuel and basic goods," says Purboyo Yudha Sadewa, chief economist at Danareksa Research Institute. "Now prices are stable, and so are his numbers." Indeed, there have been missteps along the way during his past five years as President - such as being misled by certain advisors and his government's failure to use 20% of the budget for education, as mandated...
...while it may be true that Japan has seen the depths of its worst postwar recession, economists say things are still far from good - and a "double-dip" recession is an increasingly likely outcome. "It will take several years, not one or two years, before Japan's output gap, or economic slack, disappears," says JPMorgan chief economist Masaaki Kanno. "Deflation and high unemployment will last for a long time. The question is whether the economy will continue to grow for several years without having the double dip." (See pictures of Japan in the 1980s and today...
...while industrial output in the world's second-largest economy jumped 5.9% in May - the third consecutive month-to-month increase - output remains down nearly 30% compared with May, 2008. "Currently, the recovery is boosted by global destocking and the government economic-stimulus measures," says Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. "If [those] fade away, it's possible for the [economy] to go down again." (See 10 things to do in Tokyo...
...economy." It's certainly better for economic activity to be increasing rather than decreasing, but the focus on whether the economy is in recession or not can miss a lot. "I don't care about what the dating committee says. I'm concerned about longer-term issues," says Yale economist Robert Shiller. "We are in for an extended period of subnormal economic growth." Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of bond-investing giant Pimco, has popularized a catchier if less informative phrase for what we're in for: "the new normal...
...Teasing the meaning out of such changes is what Fed watchers do - they're sort of like Kremlinologists before the fall of the Soviet Union. UniCredit economist Harm Bandholz interpreted the new wording to mean that the FOMC had decided that "the deflation threat is gone...