Word: economist
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...leave. In Novolipetsk, to the east of Lyudinovo, thousands have been furloughed since Nov. 14, when the steel factory idled two of its blast furnaces. The government estimates that companies laid off about 200,000 workers in December and January, but that's probably an understatement. Yevgeny Gontmakher, an economist who heads the Russian Academy of Sciences' Social Studies Center, expects that Russia's official unemployment rate, long below 6%, will be twice that level...
...time of nearly universal dismay over the business outlook, there are few experts anywhere who can out-gloom Jim Walker, an economist at an independent Hong Kong research firm called Asianomics. In his thick Scottish accent, Walker predicts the worst global recession since the Great Depression. GDP in the U.S., he says, could contract as much as 5% in 2009, and Europe by 2%. He is no more bullish about the economies in his area of specialty: Asia, a region where most of his colleagues foresee more buoyancy. China won't see GDP rise more than...
...Before writing off Walker as just another member of a growing Greek chorus of dispirited prognosticators, consider that he has a history of detecting worst-case scenarios before they came to pass. Back in 1995, Walker, then an economist at brokerage house CLSA, penned a report entitled It's Life, Jim, but Not as We Know It: Asia Decoupling, in which he and his team of economists warned that Asian currency regimes, if not reformed, could be susceptible to Mexico-style meltdowns in two to three years. Two years later, the region plunged into the 1997 Asian crisis, which...
...current downturn as well, Walker's dim views, which at first seemed on the fringe, now appear less farfetched. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in late January revised its forecasts for 2009 sharply downward, predicting the slowest global growth rate since World War II, at only 0.5%. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard said he expects "the global economy to come to a virtual halt." Even China would record only 6.75% GDP growth in 2009, according...
...journalist Michael Pollan, author of “The Omnivore’s Dilemma.” Pollan lays out the case against modern agribusiness in a very persuasive, prescriptive way. But he still argues solely at the level of the intellect, and reason—as any economist or Exxon exec knows—can just as easily be turned to the defense of one’s own interests...