Word: economisters
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...Analysts in Japan say the U.S. faces a similar situation today. The Fed's recent rate cut "is better than doing nothing, but it will unlikely work so much as it did in the past," says Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at JPMorgan Securities in Tokyo. Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo, believes that the Fed may bring its rates down to zero by the middle of 2009, as the U.S. economy slows in coming quarters. "Will it be effective or stimulative? My answer is not necessarily so," he says...
...pile up and prices edge downward. Properties are at least moving again there, many at 30% to 40% off even last year's lowered prices. "In Los Angeles, one year ago, the median home price was $582,450; this September, it was $376,790," says Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. That may sound awful, particularly if you're the seller, but it may represent a clearance level - i.e., prices low enough to draw buyers - which the market needs in order to stabilize. Other helpful factors: banks are agreeing to short sales - i.e., selling below...
...relatively new concept - and families could afford more than ever before. Stocks were on a tear: between 1924 and 1929, the Dow Jones Industrial Average quadrupled. At that time, it was the longest bull market ever recorded; some thought it would last forever. In the fall of 1929, economist Irving Fisher announced that "stock prices have reached what looks like a permanent plateau." (See pictures of the stock market crash...
...There has been a rearguard action among conservatives - "market skeptics," is how one U.S. source describes them - to throw sand in the reform gears as the global carnage mounts. That, in part, explains Paulson's speech in New York. The conservatives have made some headway. Fan Gang, a liberal economist and adviser to the Ministry of Finance, says that any move towards derivatives trading on the Chinese exchanges is, at least for now, "probably on hold...
...mortgages have caused across the globe - introducing them to China was high on western banks' wish list. They argue that relatively straightforward derivatives deepen the liquidity of both debt and equity markets, and provide investors with useful hedging vehicles. "The Chinese understand all that," says Nicholas Lardy, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. "But the Chinese really want to study how this happened [in the U.S.], what derivative's role was, and how they can avoid it in the future. That's all going to take some time...