Word: economisters
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...mainland's once small and isolated economy became much bigger and deeply integrated into global commerce - making it more exposed to the business cycles of its big trading partners like the U.S. "The huge elephant in the China shop is the slowing global economy," says Merrill Lynch Asia economist T.J. Bond, who cites an obvious reason: China's manufacturing sector, which accounts for 43% of China's GDP, depends heavily upon sales to the West. Some 40% of China's exports go to the U.S. and Europe, and with potentially deep recessions setting in there, economists are slashing the country...
...Counting on Chinese consumers, however, may not be a sure bet. Some economists had thought that increasingly wealthy Chinese, with their appetite for cars, mobile phones and Big Macs, could help fill the breach opened by retreating American spenders. But that hope, too, is fading. Though Chinese spending is so far holding up - retail sales of consumer goods jumped 23% in September - household consumption, at only 40% of GDP (compared with about 65% in industrialized countries), isn't yet substantial enough to maintain China's high growth rates. "I don't think [domestic spending] will replace what has been lost...
...credit crunch is not anywhere near over. "It took 20 years for us to get into this situation - leveraged to the hilt - and it will take more than a couple of years to unwind it," says Paul Ashworth, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. "And even when we get back to normal, that normal is not going to be the same. We won't have this sort of freely available credit that we had before for households and businesses. It's going to be a different reality - a more austere one - when we come out on the other...
...markets like the one from 1965 to 1982, or 1929 to 1949. If you're looking for a bottom, an end to the pain, you're very likely to be disappointed. "Bear markets behave rather like Lucy in the Peanuts cartoon strip," Phil Coggan writes in this week's Economist. "Just when Charlie Brown is persuaded to attempt to kick the football, she snatches it away...
...that London hasn't really asked itself before: Has London become too reliant on a single industry, putting all its eggs into one volatile basket? "Obviously people see it as a risk, and if there's a prolonged downturn, it will become an issue," says Andrew Goodwin, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, who nonetheless believes that while "there is a concern about dependency, financial services have done well historically...