Word: economisters
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...Policymakers and central bankers are scrambling to raise interest rates and tighten credit to get inflation under control. But these same measures suppress the investment and consumption that generates growth, threatening to put the brakes on Asia's unusually fast and relatively untroubled expansion. Glenn Maguire, chief Asia-Pacific economist for Société Générale in Hong Kong, estimates that GDP growth in East Asia (excluding China and Japan) could sink from about 6.5% this year to 5% in 2009, the slowest rate since 2001. Inflation, Maguire says, "is the largest risk to Asian growth...
...more talk than action on the international front, so Asian governments are battling on their own. There are some early signs that anti-inflation measures could pay off. After peaking at a 12-year high in February, inflation in China will begin to taper off in coming months, economists are predicting. To cool down its overheating economy and help throttle price increases, Chinese officials employed a mix of policies that included limits on bank lending, a throwback to the country's command-economy days. Yet, despite these steps, the mainland's growth does not appear to be slowing appreciably. Investment...
...Indeed, even though inflation throughout the region is likely to continue to rise in coming months, no one is expecting an economic calamity. "We don't believe that Asia will run into another financial crisis," says Park Cyn Young, senior economist at the Asian Development Bank in Manila. Asian countries have large hard-currency reserves and relatively healthy banks, and so are far better prepared to absorb external shocks than they were during the region's last recession 10 years ago. "This time, [Asian policymakers] have learned their lessons and will be more alert...
...Germany itself, some strongly disagree. At the German Engineering Federation, an association of about 3,000 German machinery firms, economist Olaf Wortmann acknowledges that there has been "a change of tempo," but he insists that the upward trend is continuing. The Federation tracks the order inflow of its members, and while that number fell 12% in May, it jumped a spectacular 35% in April. "There are always monthly fluctuations," says Wortmann. For the first six months of 2008, the industry is still expecting growth of at least 5%. One heartening factor: the engineering firms' factories continue...
This month Taylor Wimpey, Britain's biggest housebuilder, failed to secure badly needed new funding from existing shareholders or new investors; its stock has dropped by 95% in the past year. Several Spanish homebuilders and construction firms are also struggling. Hetal Mehta, an economist at Ernst & Young in London, says U.K. house prices - which have dropped about 8% from their peak last year - could fall another 10%. Deutsche Bank figures the total drop could be closer to 25% by the end of 2010. Whatever the eventual decline, housing woes are already casting a chill on spending. For example, says Mehta...