Word: economisters
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...recession," writes former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers in a newspaper column. "I'd put the number at about a 75% chance," says investing guru Jack Bogle on TV. "We are becoming more certain that the recession is either here or no more than two quarters away," warns Merrill Lynch economist David Rosenberg in a note to clients...
...sense it goes back to Aristotle," says the paper's senior author, Armin Falk, an economist. "The fact that we are social beings is a well-known fact." But the idea that rewards are context-dependent challenges a key assumption behind most traditional of economic theories: the premise that humans are essentially self-interested, that they care about their own work, income, achievements, and purchases, and that whatever other people do is, if not irrelevant, at least not going to have a consistent or predictable effect on decision-making...
...rush for the exits could pose problems for China's economy. According to a recent study by Merrill Lynch, China's investor class - an estimated 150 million people - has sunk 22% of its capital into the stock market, compared with 8% two years ago. Shanghai-based economist Andy Xie calculates that if the stock market drops by half, urban households will lose about 20% of their overall net worth, putting a dent in consumer spending. Overall, economists figure that a 50% decline in equity values might lop 1-1.5% off China's double-digit GDP-growth rate...
...even for inexperienced investors, accustomed to quick scores and relentlessly rising share prices, to ignore. Last month, a top official at the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Tu Guangshao, said investors needed to "educate themselves" about market risks. "Some sort of correction was inevitable, and it's probably here," says economist Xie. Although many investors believed the government would do nothing to damage confidence in stocks before Beijing hosts the 2008 Olympics next summer, that belief has proven to be unfounded. In recent weeks, regulators ordered commercial banks to freeze lending activities through the end of the year - a major step...
...production at any time. But that raises the pesky question of why they don't. So far, the answer from OPEC leaders has been that high prices are the fault of speculators and the falling dollar, not low production. They're not just blowing smoke. Lynn Westfall, chief economist of refiner Tesoro Corp., says there's more than enough oil for sale right now. The price pressure, he explains, "is coming from financial participants in futures markets...