Word: economisters
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...slowing. But oil and gas reserves are building; their prices will stablize soon. Housing activity will continue to slow-but from a pace that everyone knew was unsustainable. The national median home price rose a blistering 13% last year. The next three years, predicts Doug Duncan, chief economist at the Mortgage Banker?s Association, price gains will equal their long-run average of 5% to 6% each year...
...analysts, inside and out of Japan, are quick to note that Livedoor is not a large company, even by Japanese standards, and, therefore, they argue that the ?Livedoor Shock? now consuming Japan risks blowing the economic impact of the company?s woes out of proportion. Peter Morgan, Chief Economist for HSBC Securities in Tokyo calls Livedoor a symbolic battle and a specific case that has little implications for the rest of the economy. ?The economy is better now than it?s been for quite some time,? he says. ?The fundamentals still look pretty good...
...volume of orders that prompted the stock exchange?s early closing, Takuji Aida, Chief Economist at Barclays Capital Japan, blames undisciplined individual investors-a category that Livedoor?s CEO Takafumi Horie helped cultivate. As in the United States seven years ago, the rise of Japan?s Internet sector has stoked a surge in online brokerage companies and individual stock investing. According to some estimates, individual investors now account for 50% of the Japanese market?s total trading volume. ?Many Japanese households have started to join in the stock market, and a lot of money went into technology stock shares,? says...
...that so far, ?but if Livedoor had that brilliant idea, it?s possible that other companies might have had similar thoughts.? For now, however, most analysts TIME contacted contend that Japan?s stock market, its economy, and the financial reporting controls are fundamentally strong. In fact, Peter Tasker, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in Tokyo, maintains that the ?Livedoor Shock? could be seen as a long-overdue correction to the speculative froth that powered the Japanese stock market to a 40% increase last year. With additional reporting by Ilya Garger/Hong Kong and Toko Sekiguchi/Tokyo
WHAT'S THE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY? High energy costs will shave up to half a point off GDP growth in 2006, predicts Stephen Brown, an economist with the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank--"a drag on the economy," he says, but not enough of one to tip us into recession. Still, slower growth means there will be pockets of pain. In Iowa, applications to the state's energy-assistance program are up 8%. Public schools, hit with high heating bills, are turning down the thermostat and spending less on field trips. David Callis, who grows corn, soybeans and wheat...