Word: economisters
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...Even developed, energy-efficient economies like Japan and South Korea are feeling oil's bite. Growth in Korea is likely to be at least 20% below what the Ministry of Finance and Economy was targeting at the beginning of the year, economists estimate. In Japan, $60 oil for 12 months could shave half a percent off GDP growth in an economy that had recently begun to perk up, according to Reiji Takeishi, a senior fellow at the Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo. The oil-price hikes so far, estimates Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie, mean the Asia-Pacific region...
...surge. Analysts who expected global economic growth to slow?thus curbing some demand for crude?as oil passed $40 and then $50 per barrel have been proved wrong. "Warnings that [$50-a-barrel oil] would threaten a global downturn turned out to be too pessimistic," says Richard Berner, an economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. With prices threatening to bust through $70, though, the chances of an energy-related economic slump are growing by the week...
...Rockower's not the only person to believe the sky is falling: Princeton economist and New York Times op-ed columnist Paul Krugman this week wrote that "we're starting to hear a hissing sound, as the air begins to leak out of the bubble" in the real estate market. Don't expect a plunging decline, says Krugman; instead, continual falling sales and rising inventory are signaling the end of good times. In other words, the bubble won't burst, but pfffffffffffffft gradually...
...from 782.4 and 702.3 respectively last Monday to 803.2 and 715.4 by Friday's close. When Fitch Ratings upgraded Russia's sovereign credit rating last week to BBB from BBB-, the picture looked even rosier, and pundits pronounced the post-Yukos gloom to be over. But Mikhail Delyagin, an economist and head of the Moscow-based Institute of Globalization Studies, urges caution. "The indexes are propelled by growing oil prices," he says, arguing that most of the Russian economy is under the influence of Moscow's political élite. Even so, with oil hitting new highs, doesn't that suggest...
...vital" economic development. Another theme is that the world needs a plan that extends beyond 2012, when emissions limits set in Kyoto end. Even the 2012 goals are in jeopardy. "I don't think Europe can achieve its goals. I don't think Japan can," says Warwick McKibbin, an economist specializing in energy issues at the Australian National University. "Kyoto is a toothless tiger, a very political agreement...