Word: economisters
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...keep an economy crippled. For the most part, Asia's governments and corporate leaders are pinning their hopes on optimistic forecasts of a mild U.S. recovery in the fourth quarter of this year. "We are in a pretty rocky bottom right now," says Han Yung Jung, an economist at the Korea Institute of Finance, an organization funded by big banking interests. How soon things get better "depends on how soon the U.S. economy gets its act together...
...worse, about 40% of the stuff Asia makes for the U.S. is electronics, mainly components like microchips, motherboards and monitors?the parts for the computers that U.S. dotbombs stopped buying after the tech boom went bust. The result is that Asia has been hit with what Arup Raha, chief economist at UBS Warburg in Hong Kong, calls a "double whammy" of depressed U.S. demand for all goods, and a particular slump in electronics, the cornerstone of Asia's new economy. Taiwan's exports plunged nearly 17% in the second quarter. Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines are not faring...
...keep lines of credit open to delinquent debtors, a move that has put a straitjacket on liquidity and dampened investment. Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad clings to a peg that has hugely overvalued the ringgit. "It's going to take Thailand and Malaysia 10 years," says Tim Condon, chief economist at ING Barings. "So far, most Asian economies aren't willing to let the market have its way with them...
...know if it'll work or if it won't, but you've got no choice." Some worry Koizumi is trying too much, too soon. "He's promised structural reforms, along with clearing up bank loans and cutting government debt?all at once," says Richard Jerram, chief economist at ING Barings in Tokyo. "But as companies restructure, more people lose jobs and tax revenue goes down, increasing government debt. Unemployed people also spend less money, forcing more companies to fail. That increases banks' nonperforming loans. It's S&M economics...
...Then began the parade. One after another at Einhorn's bail hearing, his supporters took the stand in his defense. A minister, a corporate lawyer, a playwright, an economist, a telephone-company executive. They couldn't imagine Einhorn's harming any living thing. Release of murder defendants pending trial was unheard of, but Einhorn's attorney was soon-to-be U.S. senator Arlen Specter, and bail was set at a staggeringly low $40,000 - only $4,000 of it needed to walk free. It was paid by Barbara Bronfman, a Montreal socialite who had married into the Seagram distillery family...