Word: economisters
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Thea Lee, an economist for the AFL-CIO, disagreed...
...short, you need to think before you spend. Before going back to the abacus, however, know that the skeptics are still outnumbered by economists and executives who insist that business on the whole is more productive. Economist Allen Sinai of Primark Decision Economics points out that the U.S. has lately enjoyed "superstrong growth, superlow inflation and a superlow unemployment rate." That could not happen if productivity were really as low as the official figures indicate, he says; the numbers--er, do not compute. So productivity must be increasing faster than calculated, and one likely reason is computerization. Maybe the experts...
...when growth rates ranged between 3.0% and 5.5% annually, and the sag is virtually certain to continue into next year. Given the continuing spread of the global financial crisis, from which the U.S. can no longer stay immune, "there must be a big slowdown," says Allen Sinai, chief global economist of Primark Decision Economics, a major forecasting firm. And next year, if the board's majority opinion is correct, the slowdown should cross the line into a growth recession. That is usually defined as a continuing increase in national output of goods and services, but one too puny to keep...
Noting that the U.S. until now has enjoyed a "Goldilocks economy"--not too hot, not too cold, just right--David Wyss, chief economist of Standard & Poor's DRI, the economic-consulting firm, poses this question: "Will the bears eat Goldilocks?" (As in the fairy tale, there are three bears--the Asian, Russian and Wall Street varieties.) His answer: It's a toss-up. Right now Wyss sees a fifty-fifty chance of an outright recession before the end of the year 2000. Wyss would have shifted the odds to favor recession if the Federal Reserve had continued to hold...
Should that happen, the TIME board's numerical forecasts are not spectacularly gloomy. Stephen Roach, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, the giant investment firm, foresees the growth in gross domestic product slowing to an annual rate of 3.2% by the end of this year--vs. 3.9% for all 1997--and then to 2.5% by the end of 1999. Sinai expects 1.5% for all 1998, then...