Word: economisters
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...Stephen Roach, chief economist of the Morgan Stanley investment firm, that is a prescription for disaster. He thinks growth even this year may speed up to 3%, leading to rapid inflation in 1997 and possibly to a recession in 1998. And last Friday's financial-market action showed how widely his views are shared on Wall Street. Huge May increases in factory orders and new-home sales had made it obvious that growth is accelerating sharply from the anemic 2.2% pace of early 1996; estimates put the second-quarter rate at 4% or even 4.5%. Then on Friday, the government...
...that has not happened, and its nonoccurrence is the strongest evidence cited by the faster-growth-is-safe school. Says Laura D'Andrea Tyson, President Clinton's National Economic Adviser: "A couple of years ago, most economists thought the noninflationary unemployment rate was 5.9% to 6.1%. If you told them we could stay below that for more than 18 months [actually 22 months now], they would not have believed it. But we've done it." James Annable, chief economist of First Chicago NBD Corp., a major bank, says, "My guess is you could take it down...
...some staunch advocates of faster growth, however, are uneasy. Very few would contend that there is no limit to noninflationary growth--and if the old 2%-to-2.5% standard is obsolete, where should a new line be drawn? "This is new territory for us," says Annable, the Chicago bank economist. Given the potential payoff, letting growth accelerate seems a gamble at favorable odds, and one well worth taking. But it remains, and irretrievably, a gamble...
...GWYNNE and LARRY GURWIN, who collaborated on this week's investigative story on the controversial Austrian trading company Nordex, used to be fierce rivals. Before joining TIME last year, Gurwin wrote for the Economist and the now defunct business magazine Regardie's on the early 1990s scandal involving the Bank of Credit & Commerce International (B.C.C.I.)--a story that Gwynne had reported on for Time. What's more, they both co-authored books on that tangled tale. It was useful preparation for their encounter with Nordex. Unlike B.C.C.I., Nordex has never been charged with any crimes, although it has been under...
Jane Mansbridge, a political scientist from Northwestern University, and Dani Rodrik '79, an economist and international affairs expert from Columbia University, will join the faculty this fall. David M. Romer and Christina D. Romer, two economists from the University of California at Berkeley, will come to Cambridge in the fall...