Word: economisters
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...which is probably feeling better knowing that Obama is on his way to Washington. Although it hasn't shown its hand, the UAW may try to mitigate job losses in the U.S. by pushing GM and Ford to build fewer vehicles in Mexico, according to Sean McAlinden, chief economist at CAR. Obama might be sympathetic to that argument; he said during the campaign that NAFTA needed to be re-examined. The carrot for GM is that any new workers it hires in the U.S. will make $13 to $14 an hour and collect limited benefits rather than work...
...brink of a brutal contraction as customers - rich investors, university endowments and pensions funds that make up the bulk of hedge funds' clientele - rush to withdraw their investments. Some analysts predict that a quarter of all hedge funds could fold by the end of the year. Stephen Brown, an economist at New York University's Stern School of Business, says the final toll could be much higher. "I'd say 50% of funds will close," he says. Factor in likely new government regulation, and the industry looks set for a profound, and painful, transformation. One newly retired fund manager seemed...
...change in hedge funds may not be entirely bad news for investors, either. According to NYU economist Brown, an industry shakeout could get rid of many undercapitalized or poorly managed funds, leaving remaining funds to consolidate. And the culling could even be healthy for the industry, says MIT's Lo, who draws an analogy from biology. "We've just seen a big meteorite hit," he says. "It will kill a number of species. But in the wake of that death, whole new species will arrive." As students of evolution know, the dinosaurs died to make way for something smarter...
...Stock markets are fickle, of course, and soon they returned to their downward drift. But the impact of the stimulus will last far longer because it marks the shift of China's economy away from manufacturing and exports to other means of growth. Says Ben Simpfendorfer, a China economist with the Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong: "In a decade we'll be looking back at this moment and saying, 'This was it, this was when things really changed.'" The number doesn...
...simple idea behind all these efforts is that consumers and businesses aren't spending enough to keep the economy growing; government either needs to tempt them into doing so with tax cuts or do the spending itself. In the U.S., many economists are urging a total stimulus of at least $300 billion, or 2% of GDP. A few say $500 billion or $600 billion makes more sense--and that's on top of the hundreds of billions already committed to bailing out financial institutions. Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius, who is in the $500 billion camp, estimates that...