Word: economists
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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Died. Oskar Morgenstern, 75, a brilliant Princeton University economist who shook the foundations of classical economic theory with his work in the fields of econometrics and the theory of games (Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, co-authored with John von Neumann; The Limits of Economics); of cancer; in Princeton, N.J. Morgenstern noted that classical economics -and many of its "neoclassical" adherents-has exhibited a dismal track record in predicting and interpreting phenomena. After viewing numerous examples of multivariable decision making in game situations (poker was a Morgenstern favorite), he used mathematics, logic and the relatively simple economic-behavioral concept...
Dollar's Drop. Along with its critics, Treasury also has supporters. Richard Cooper, the former Yale economist who is now Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs, believes that the major central banks can easily smooth out the money market movements caused by the dollar's drop. Adds Brookings Institution Economist Robert Solomon, noting the big trade surpluses enjoyed by the Japanese and the West Germans: "To any reasonable person, the appreciation of the yen and the mark is desirable." Moreover, Solomon contends, the shift in rates is not that great. For example, though the dollar has slipped...
...first half s rapid rate of growth to continue through the second half-though nobody is forecasting anything like a recession. Charles Schultze, the President's chief economic adviser, forecasts a steady if unspectacular 5% rate of expansion for the rest of the year, and most other economists agree. A bearish minority, however, fears that the economy could be in for a more substantial slide. Says Tom Dernburg, senior economist of the Congressional Joint Economic Committee: "I'm just not convinced that the economy is going to end up looking as bright as the Administration claims...
...rules no longer apply? That question has been nagging many businessmen and policymakers who are concerned and puzzled about the persistence of relatively high inflation at a time of expanding employment and steady recovery. One man who thinks he has the answer is Dale Jorgenson, a Harvard economist whose thinking about the mid-1970s American economy is attracting increasing attention...
Guido Carli, the former governor of the Bank of Italy who now heads the Italian Confederation of Industry, openly forecasts "an era when private industry is no longer able to make a profit." In West Germany, Kurt Richebacher, chief economist of the Dresdner Bank, speaks of "a grave profitability crisis." In Belgium, Baron Leon Lambert, chairman of the Compagnie Bruxelles Lambert, flatly declares that European regimes are "impotent before the enormousness of the political, economic and social problems that confront...