Word: economists
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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Although the consumer price index rose at an annual rate of 10% in June, no one really expects another round of double-digit inflation. But the figures do indicate more inflation than had been anticipated. One top Ford Administration economist, who had been estimating that prices would be rising at a 6% rate at year's end, now privately predicts 7%. Any prolonged new surge of inflation could threaten the recovery itself by making consumers turn cautious and reduce the spending that has been lifting the nation out of its slump...
...kind of rescue Carli had pulled off before, and the strain of dealing with crises apparently left him with a feeling that he had gone stale in his job. Born in the northern Italian city of Brescia, he was educated as an academic economist, but switched to banking when he discovered in 1937 that he could become a professor only by taking the job of a Jew who had been sacked by the Fascists. At the Bank of Italy, Carli learned to shrug off criticism: for a central banker, he once said, "the first quality is to be cold-blooded...
...problem, laments Cornell University Food Economist Daniel Padberg, is that "in general, the food industry is more interested in marketing than in efficiency." One example is packaging. In Europe, produce growers use just four sizes of containers, having agreed on a standardized system years ago. But in the U.S., food packers use 2,500 different sizes of shipping containers...
...funds will choke the still anemic housing industry, squeeze thousands of small- and medium-sized businesses out of the credit market and eventually abort the recovery-leaving the U.S. with insufficient plant capacity and an intolerably high level of unemployment. One of the gloomiest prognosticators, New York Stock Exchange Economist William Freund, calculates the investment needs of private industry alone at more than $4 trillion over the next decade. Freund predicts that industry will come up short by about $650 billion...
Jugular Vein. Other experts, among them Citibank Economist Leif Olsen, doubt that the shortfall will be that severe. Yet the price of avoiding crisis, the optimists agree, will be a sharp scaling down of the nation's investment goals through the mid-1980s. In a recent study sponsored by Washington's Brookings Institution, Harvard's James Duesenberry and two other economists derided "Cassandras" who are forecasting a shortage and concluded that "we can afford the future, but just barely." The Duesenberry study contends that Government can be counted upon to come to the rescue: by running...