Word: economists
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Dates: during 1980-1989
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...separate report from the Federal Reserve Board seemed to lend support for Walter Mondale's contention that the U.S might be moving into a recession. It showed that industrial production declined .6% in September, falling for the first time since the last recession ended in November 1982. Economist James Tobin of Yale University warned that the Federal Reserve should be concerned about a new downturn. Levy Economic Forecasts of Chappaqua, N.Y., proclaimed that the recession was already here...
Over the past century, expansions have lasted four years on average, and the current recovery has not yet passed its second birthday. Most private forecasters agree that a downturn is not imminent. Said Economist Barry Bosworth of Washington's Brookings Institution: "The private economy is strong enough to ensure that the U.S. will not have a recession soon." Nonetheless, a slowdown in growth is probably inevitable. Many businesses overestimated what their summer sales would be and built up excess inventories. Companies will now moderate their production to get inventories more in line with sales. Data Resources, the Lexington, Mass...
...Economists are divided over which way interest rates will go. Since the Reagan Administration came to office, the prime rate has gone from a high of 20% to a low of 10.5%, while mortgage rates during his term reached 18.5% and hit a bottom of 12.6%. David Levine of the Sanford C. Bernstein investment firm in New York City thinks that a slowing economy will curb credit demands. As a result, he forecasts, the prime rate could fall to 9.5% by next June. In contrast, Irwin Kellner, chief economist of New York's Manufacturers Hanover Trust, fears that rates...
Although they are now considered essential measures of economic performance, such vital yardsticks as the gross national product and the consumer price index have come into widespread use only in recent decades. During the 1940s economists made rapid strides in their ability to sift through the billions of transactions that make up economic behavior and distill them into key statistics that indicate the state of the economy. Few experts have been more crucial in turning the numerical potpourri into some kind of order than Sir Richard Stone, 71, who last week won the 1984 Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic...
...economist, Stone is more interested in laboring in the library than in the spotlight of public-policy making. Says he: "The economists who talk policy are striking figures, not a retiring, backroom boy like me." The new Nobel laureate is somewhat critical of his own profession, maintaining that too many economists today overspecialize and do not know enough history and psychology. "Economists," he says, "propose remedies to government and do not take into account the ability or inability of people to change." -By John Greenwald...