Word: economists
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Dates: during 1990-1999
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...forecast can measure the volcanic threat created by the crisis in Asia. Economists generally blame the drop in stocks on slumping U.S. exports to the stricken region. The decline limited the growth of U.S. corporate earnings--a key determinant of stock prices--with industries from chemicals to aerospace reporting lower profits in the second quarter than in the same period a year ago. "Asia is unpredictable," says Allen Sinai, chief global economist for Primark Decision Economics. "I can't guarantee that there will be no recession in the U.S. next year because no one can be sure about Asia." Observes...
...wages (after inflation) have finally started to move up after three decades of declines or stagnation, as labor shortages force employers to pay premiums to hire and retain workers. "Wealth is the icing on the cake, but it's wages that bake the cake," says Diane Swonk, deputy chief economist at the bank First Chicago NBD. These gradual earnings gains might signal an increase in inflation, because compensation makes up the bulk of most employers' expenses. But the glory of the economy today is its remarkable balance. While labor costs are indeed rising, they are largely offset by the growing...
...before last week's drop in the stock market, which fostered a sense that slower growth lies ahead. And the wealth effect could greatly worsen matters if stocks really hit the skids. "We've got a market that's doubled in the last three years," says Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. "If you lose 10% or 20% after doubling, that's not real pain. But if you take this correction into the 25% range, the market could hurt more going down than it helped going up." That's because people often feel worse about their losses...
There are skeptics. Stephen Roach, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, suspects that e-commerce is being oversold, though he admits it's growing rapidly. "I question if it'll ever be big." He is right when he notes that e-commerce is no more than 1% of the U.S.'s $8.5 trillion economy; in fact, consumer online sales now account for only .2% of total retail. And e-commerce, Roach argues, is hardly on a par with the Industrial Revolution. "This is an intangible cerebral revolution, which is a lot harder to pull...
...share last week after reporting second-quarter earnings of $8.1 million--following three straight years of losses. Ten thousand dollars' worth of Yahoo purchased at IPO in 1996 would be worth $1.68 million today. "Investors are treating the Internet as if it were the next television industry," says economist Lawrence White of New York University's Stern School of Business...