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...their opinions as "consensus" forecasts. A 2003 study by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta found that the Blue Chip Consensus Forecast, which polls some 50 economists each month, is consistently better than any of its individual members. The researchers dubbed that result a "reverse Lake Wobegon effect": everyone was below average. During economic turning points - like the one we're currently in - the individual forecasts veered further off the mark...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...while the changes in circulation at Fung are of lesser importance, "much more worrisome is the diminution of [HCL's] services, capacity, and commitment" to the Fung Library's distinctive collections. And Wilt L. Idema, chair of the department of East Asian Languages and Civilizations, expressed concerns about the effect of budget pressures on HCL's ability to provide services, support research, purchase increasingly expensive academic materials, and expand and maintain collections. "A library is not a dead thing," Idema said. "A library has to continuously grow. If it does not have last five years of scholarship, what...

Author: By Peter F. Zhu, CRIMSON STAFF WRITER | Title: HCL Restricts Fung Library Circulation | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...before you go yelling four-letter words at every turn, consider this: in Stephens' study, swearing reduced the perception of pain more strongly in women than in men. That may be because in daily life "men swear more than women," says Pinker, which could have the unfortunate side effect of dulling the natural painkiller. "[For women] I suspect that swearing retains more of an emotional punch because it has not been overused," he says...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Bleep! My Finger! Why Swearing Helps Ease Pain | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

...biggest headaches. For despite vast oil reserves and exports, Iran still imports about 130,000 bbl. of gasoline a day because its refineries are too few and too old to meet the demand at home. The Chinese deal would literally keep Iran's factories, homes and cars - in effect, a nation of 66 million people - running. (Read about Iran's campaign against foreign plots, real and imagined...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: How Iran Might Beat Future Sanctions: The China Card | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

...Others remain unconvinced, viewing China, in effect, as an economy on steroids. Bank-lending numbers announced last week showed an extraordinary leap. New loans in June totaled the equivalent of $224 billion, more than double the previous month's lending. The total amount of money that banks have loaned thus far in 2009 already exceeds the total amount loaned for all of last year. Speculative froth in China's financial markets abounds. Long-futures interest on copper contracts on the Shanghai Metals Exchange - bets that the price of copper will continue to rise - recently exceeded the total amount of copper...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: China's Economic Recovery Gathers Steam | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

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