Word: embargo
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Choice Area. It is clear, though, that producing governments will increasingly call the tune. Saudi Arabia has already slowed an ambitious Aramco expansion program, and will likely permit output to rise only slowly from the present 7.3 million bbl. a day even after the embargo ends; Faisal's government has little need for the revenues that additional sales would bring. Thus Aramco has next to no chance of boosting production to 20 million bbl. a day by 1982, as it once planned. That Saudi policy alone will keep worldwide oil supplies tight for years to come...
Last September, just before the Arab embargo, when shortages were already cropping up, Ken Jamieson and other Exxon officials privately warned leaders of Britain, Germany, Italy and the European Common Market that they had better get an international allocation plan ready in case the Arabs turned off the spigot. They paid no attention, so it fell to Exxon and other oil companies to switch shipments around when the Arabs cut back and embargoed last October. Exxon, for example, has routed to Rotterdam Iranian oil that would normally go elsewhere, and switched away from Rotterdam the Arabian oil that King Faisal...
...access to then plentiful and cheap foreign crude. U.S. refineries have about 3 million to 4 million bbl. less daily capacity than they would need to meet "normal" domestic demand of close to 20 million bbl. That lack will contribute to keeping supplies tight for years after the Arab embargo ends. Now Exxon, which accounts for about 10% of the nation's refinery runs, is almost doubling the 300,000 bbl.-a-day capacity of its refinery at Baytown, Texas, and adding 100,000 daily bbl. to the capacities of other U.S. refineries...
...Areas that were greatly dependent on imported oil, notably the Northeast, have been hit especially hard by the Arab embargo. The U.S. normally needs 7 million to 8 million bbl. of imported oil and petroleum products daily, but imports are down to some 5 million...
...winter, combined with dedicated conservation by Americans, has cut demand for heating fuel by about 11% below previous forecasts. Heating-fuel storage tanks are brimming over, even in the Northeast, which has been the most severely afflicted region. Best of all, the first signs appeared that the Arab oil embargo on the U.S. might be lifted...