Word: embargos
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...life" was at stake. He abandoned his earlier fastidiousness about how to describe the thousands of Western civilians, including 3,000 Americans, held by Saddam and finally used the only accurate word: hostages. But he insisted that despite his concerns about their safety, the United Nations food and trade embargo "must be enforced." He won a significant victory early Saturday when the United Nations Security Council voted 13 to 0 (Cuba and Yemen abstaining) for a strongly worded resolution authorizing nations with naval forces in the area to use "such measures . . . as may be necessary . . . to halt all inward...
Bush and his inner circle of advisers have considered several scenarios for the way the crisis may play out and are refining their responses to each contingency. The most crucial factor is time. If, for example, the embargo takes many months to exert serious pressure on Saddam, says a White House official, "Iraq could simply hunker down and wait us out." A protracted stalemate could cause U.S. allies to tire of the mission or permit friction between American troops and the Saudi population to fester. In the U.S., public impatience with the cost of the buildup could lead to demands...
...might Americans -- and the rest of the world -- react to the sight on television of hostages, including women and children, wasting away under an embargo imposed by their own government? Bush and his inner circle are banking on their belief that most Americans, having seen what happened in Iran and Lebanon, now agree it is a mistake to let U.S. policy be the ransom for hostages' lives. Bush, explains an Administration official, "is not going to sacrifice the interests of 250 million Americans in an attempt to buy the freedom of 2,500 Americans...
Rather than initiate a military conflict, the U.S. and its allies hope to resolve the crisis by bolstering the embargo's effectiveness. This could be accomplished by warning Jordan that if it does not stop supplies from reaching Iraq through its port at Aqaba, the U.S. will stop shipments from reaching % Jordan itself. As an inducement to King Hussein, oil-rich Arab states along with oil-hungry Japan have offered to make up any losses Jordan would suffer from such actions. The U.S. could also pledge to protect Jordan from any Iraqi military reprisal...
That is true up to a point. Saddam's hope, of course, is that he can outlast the embargo decreed by the United Nations and enforced by massed fleets. The odds have to be read against him because Iraq does not have large stockpiles of food, 75% of which it imports; its funds abroad are frozen; and he cannot export his oil. But with tight rationing and scrimping, and some leakage of supplies and spare parts, the country can probably squeak through from several months to a year or more of blockade without giving in to Western demands...