Word: epa
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...Princeton scholar Tim Searchinger, who helped launch a global rethinking of biofuels in 2007 by calling attention to their effects on land use, warns that the EPA assumptions are extremely optimistic - and that if they're wrong the consequences could be extremely dire. "It takes a lot of land to make a small amount of energy," Searchinger says. "Academic studies have concluded that if the world gets even 10% of its energy from these new kinds of crops, most tropical forests will probably disappear." (Read "The Clean Energy Scam...
...renewable-fuels lobby thinks the EPA should just ignore the indirect emissions, because they're hard to calculate. But Searchinger points out several ways the EPA gave biofuels the benefit of the doubt. Its analysis of direct emissions gave corn ethanol an advantage over gasoline nearly three times larger than most previous studies; it gave cellulosic ethanol savings 50% higher than nearly all other studies. It based most of its numbers not on what farmers and ethanol producers do now but on what it hopes they will do in 2022, assuming dramatic increases in crop yields and energy efficiency...
...starkest example of the problems with the analysis is the time horizon. When the EPA studied a reasonable 30-year time period, even with its generous assumptions, soy biodiesel and corn-ethanol plants powered by coal or natural gas actually produced more emissions than gasoline; corn ethanol only passed the stress test (and just barely) when powered by the cleanest possible power. And that analysis assumed it's a good trade-off to accept massive emissions today in exchange for reductions over 30 years, when in fact massive emissions today could help trigger devastating ice melts and other feedback loops...
...EPA also studied a 100-year time horizon, which makes the numbers look a bit better for corn and soy, but makes no sense: Who knows if we're going to use biofuels or gas or even automobiles for the next 100 years? Scientists believe we need to reduce our emissions 80% by 2050 to avoid catastrophe; the notion that we should tear down our rain forests and peatlands today in the hope that our cars will burn a bit cleaner a century from now is political analysis, not environmental analysis. "That's something we'll have to take into...
...true that Congress forced the Administration into this weird situation, in which it has to conduct pro-forma analyses of a policy that's essentially a done deal. Even if the EPA does rule that some biofuels flunk the life-cycle test, the industry can still apply for waivers...