Word: errored
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What might help us better use economic forecasts, then, is to more explicitly take into account the limits that come with any forecast. You wouldn't find an economist publishing a paper in a journal without margins of error around the data - and yet we routinely drop such nuance when we talk about economic variables in public conversation. "One of the things that gets lost is the fact that there are ways of trying to assess errors in forecasts," says Robert Eisenbeis, a former researcher at the Atlanta Fed who is now chief monetary economist at the money-management firm...
...McNamara waited 30 years before conceding in his 1995 memoir, In Retrospect: The Tragedy and Lessons of Vietnam, that he had waged the war in error. "My voice would have had no impact at all at that point," he told TIME when the book came out, explaining why he hadn't revealed his doubts when he stepped down as Secretary of Defense in early 1968. "My voice would have had no impact whatsoever." (See pictures of the China-Vietnam border...
...CORRECTION: An earlier online version of the June 26 article "Suspect in Kirkland Shooting Indicted" incorrectly stated that Jabrai Jordan Copney pleaded guilty at an arraignment in Cambridge last month. In fact, Copney pleaded not guilty, and the text of the article has been updated to reflect the error...
...lightning strikes). Most aircraft accidents stem from an unfortunate cascade of events rather than from any single system malfunction. It's becoming clearer that some combination of weather, an unknown flight-control failure and perhaps the crew's inability to respond is probably to blame. The pilots' margin for error at the time was small; in addition to encountering bad (but not extreme) thunderstorms, the plane was operating near its "coffin corner" - a combination of speed and altitude at which it becomes difficult to maintain stable flight...
Produced by 13 federal agencies and several major universities and research centers, the climate report found that if carbon emissions continued growing unabated, the mainland U.S. would heat up anywhere from 7 degrees Fahrenheit to 11.5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2090, with some margin of error. That's similar to the predictions found in the 2007 report by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but the real value of the new assessment is found in its detailed breakdown of the different effects warming will have in various regions of the U.S. - in a country as geographically vast and diverse...