Word: errors
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...poll of Harvard undergraduates conducted late last month by The Crimson found 73 percent of eligible voters supported Kerry, while just 19 percent favored Bush. The poll had a margin of error of 5.1 percent...
...pollsters sampling the whole country? Pollsters usually interview about 1,000 registered voters and, thanks to the magic of statistical math, 95% of the time those 1,000 accurately reflect the opinions of the entire country, give or take a margin of error of plus or minus 3%. But some people are not reached. Polls are conducted by phone, which leaves out about 8% of adult Americans, including those in institutions (prisons, hospitals, military bases), some low-income people and the approximately 4% of adults who have only cell phones. Then there are the people who hang up on pollsters...
...voting system is vulnerable to imperfection, abuse and human error. And it should not be forgotten that 12% of voters nationwide (and more than 70% in dead-heat Ohio) will be using the punch-card ballots that caused such havoc in Florida in 2000. But the lack of transparency in electronic voting may be particularly problematic. "The reason people trust elections is that they can see what's going on," says David Dill, a computer-science professor at Stanford University and founder of the Verified Voting Foundation. "With electronic voting, the handling of the ballots, putting ballots in the ballot...
...given Bush about a 60% chance of winning since September. While some say the markets are too small to be clairvoyant (only $8 million has been traded in the Bush contract at Dublin-based Intrade, the largest market), they have impressive records. Since 1988, the Iowa exchange's average error in presidential races has been less than 1.5 percentage points--compared with more than 2 points among major polls, says Forrest Nelson, a founder of the exchange...
...gymnast; by a sports tribunal; in Lausanne, Switzerland. The Court of Arbitration for Sport, in a case brought by South Korean gymnast Yang Tae Young, decided that it would set a dangerous precedent to withdraw Hamm's medal from the Summer Olympics in Athens, despite a scoring error that cost bronze medalist Yang a crucial one-tenth of a point, which would have been enough to win him the gold...