Word: errors
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When Wright-Swadel told McKinsey of what he thought was an error, he was again surprised...
Polls measure averages. The margin of error demonstrates the range where that average could be. For example, if 45 percent of voters say they will vote for you, in a poll with a margin of error of five percent, that means your support is somewhere between 40 and 50 percent. If in the same poll, your opponent gets 39 percent support, the six percent difference does not mean you are ahead. Because your support could be as low as 41 percent, and that of your opponent as high as 44 percent, you are tied...
...Gallup poll (where Gore gets five percent more support than Bush) has a margin of error of four percent. The Voter.com poll (where Bush gets two percent more support than Gore) has a margin of error of three percent. Thus, in both polls, Bush and Gore are in a "statistical dead heat." No one has an edge. Nevertheless, this article, like many others I have read, mistakenly puts Gore ahead...
...headlines are based solely on registered voters--a fact that might be easy to overlook, given that it took five or more paragraphs to discover. Third, Newsweek has lauded Gore with such headlines as, "Candidate's speech propel him to a lead," (August 19th) when the margin of error indicated a tie, demonstrating either an ignorance of what their polls mean, or a reluctance to speak about...
Over the last two weeks, Newsweek has begun to mention the results among likely voters. But without mentioning the margin of error among them, the polls remain meaningless...