Word: ethiopia
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Dates: during 1990-1999
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With the rebels only 75 miles from the capital, the President discredited and the army demoralized, the script would seem to be preordained for Ethiopia. Liberia and Somalia have provided the worst kind of models in the past year: the government falls, blood splatters the capital, thousands flee the country, tribes and clans clash, anarchy prevails. This time, the foreshadowing has prompted an earnest attempt to rewrite the scenario. The chief scribe is the U.S., which until recently, when the Soviets became less active in the region, had little influence over Ethiopia's quasi-Marxist combatants...
...Haile Mariam's regime. Mengistu, whose 14-year reign of terror rivals that of Saddam Hussein, has been written off before, only to survive. But since late April, when Tigrean- led Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front guerrillas pushed as far south as Ambo, putting almost all of northern Ethiopia in rebel hands, the consensus has been that Mengistu is a goner. "It brought home that the 30- year seesaw of rebel victories and then government victories had irretrievably dipped," says a Bush Administration official. "This is the end game...
...world. We established American military credibility is the Middle East, not the world. America is not the world's policeman, nor should it be, nor can it be, no matter how much Congress inflates our military-industrial complex. If Bush thinks the U.N. would mobilize to defend Ethiopia from Mussolini (as the League of Nations failed to do), he is sadly mistaken...
...Somali dictator was in fact a client of both superpowers at different times. The Soviet Union supported his brand of "scientific socialism," then also lent its backing to his neighbor, Ethiopia, when it turned Marxist in 1977. Somalia was at war with Ethiopia over the disputed Ogaden province, so Siad Barre reversed his allegiance and appealed to the U.S. Washington was happy to provide him with $100 million in military and economic aid annually in the mid-1980s to counter Moscow...
AFRICAN ARK by Carol Beckwith and Angela Fisher (Abrams; $65). Ethiopia has suffered greatly in this century, but famine and political upheaval have never dimmed its natural wonders and social vibrance. Two photographers have brilliantly captured the essence of the leopard-colored land, as well as the haunting rites of people who still rock the cradle of mankind...