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...appearance of unanimity will prove more convincing than the actual sanctions. Which explains why Obama will make such a big deal out of the coming talks. The Administration hopes the unity on nonproliferation will make Iran think twice about flouting international agreements. And the goals of the two conferences even have the backing of hawkish U.S. critics of Obama's Iran policy. "These programs are worthwhile, and they were continued in [the] Bush [Administration]," says John Bolton, who represented the previous Administration at the U.N. and who advocates a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities...
...elements of a nuclear program, or will pursue one with its own nuclear reactors, or will get them through an alliance with Pakistan. Egypt says they might withdraw from Non-Proliferation Treaty. In Syria, there's still a sense that they haven't abandoned their ambition. And even Turkey says they want fuel cycle facilities [the ability to enrich uranium], and they've opposed bans on fuel cycles in the nuke-suppliers group...
...amount of talk seems likely to reverse that trend - some argue there's even a danger in trying. If Iran does get the capacity to build nuclear weapons and others in the region start pursuing their own programs, the U.S. will have two options: attack Iran, as Bolton and some neocons would like, or try to contain a nuclear-armed Iran while strengthening international consensus to restrict the spread of nukes. Going through the motions now could damage the credibility of the enterprise later. But the Administration is betting it's better to start now than to wait for things...
...Even without new U.N. measures in place, one area where the U.S. has been successful in imposing its unilateral sanctions is in the financial sector, where it uses the leverage of threatened exclusion from the American financial system to press Dubai's financial services industry into observing U.S. curbs. Iranians in Dubai say they find it increasingly difficult to get credit, even for workaday business dealings. "We have to pay full amounts to the supplier in order to ship the goods to us," says Morteza Masoumzadeh, deputy executive director of the Iranian Business Council in Dubai, whose shipping company focuses...
...Bandar Abbas port, without passing through Dubai at all. Iran's government-owned Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, or IRISL, has a fleet of vessels that go directly to Iran's ports from cities around China and Korea, as well as the Netherlands, Germany and Italy. So, even if the Dubai route was choked off, Tehran may yet have alternatives less vulnerable to U.S. pressure...