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There's an easy way to represent this visually: the fan chart. What starts as a line quickly becomes a blurry fan-shaped region, underscoring that as time marches forward, the variable being forecast falls into an ever broader range of possibilities. "The more you think in terms of distribution of outcomes, the better," says Gregory Mankiw, a Harvard economist who chaired President George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers. "You're always keeping in mind the inherent uncertainty." The Bank of England is a big user of the fan chart when its economists talk about inflation forecasts. Plenty...
...there were no chats arranged. The purpose of the deception was to look inside participants' heads when they were highly engaged in a potential social interaction. Partly because the study design was so complex - it's difficult to study actual social interactions on fMRI - no experiment like this had ever been conducted before. (See pictures of the college dorm's evolution...
...time, including assassination. In Lebanon once, I asked a source if he could grab a Hizballah terrorist. He said no, but he would be happy to kill him. I declined, knowing I didn't have the authority, then filed the thought away in the event those circumstances ever changed. But I sure never considered informing Congress of the offer. If the CIA always raised a contingency like this with Congress, the agency would spend all its time on the Hill...
...guns have been largely silent for more than six months now, but the battle to define what exactly took place during Israel's 22-day military operation in Gaza in January rages as fiercely as ever. Earlier this month, Amnesty International published the findings of its inquiry into the conflict, accusing both Israel and Hamas of committing war crimes. Just this week, Britain announced that it had banned the sale to Israel of spare parts for its Saar 4.5 class corvette, because of the way the missile vessel had been used by Israel during the Gaza operation. An official...
...many in the human-rights community doubt the will of the government to solve the murder of one so committed to unearthing crimes committed by the Kremlin. For Medvedev, Estemirova's killing represents a twofold problem. It brings into ever-increasing doubt the claims he made when elected last year that he would restore the rule of law in Russia, and it highlights the rising level of violence in the North Caucasus, where the Kremlin has backed Kadyrov in a mostly successful effort to quell fighting in Chechnya. Now the methods of Kadyrov, and those of the Kremlin, have been...