Word: exit
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...have much to worry about. In November 1982, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, a black Democrat, was running ahead in the polls for governor of California and was feeling confident going into election day. Pre-election polling showed that he had a significant lead over his Republican opponent, and exit-polling conducted on the day of the election predicted that Bradley would emerge victorious. But when all of the ballots were finally counted, the pollsters were proven wrong—fewer white voters had actually cast their ballots for Bradley than polling had anticipated. Daniel J. Hopkins...
...Situated in a historic former mill, McCain’s New England headquarters are spartan but lively. As the HRC members exit their yellow school bus and make their way through the building’s varnished hardwood halls, they exhibit a determined brand of optimism that is characteristic of those who toil in the labor of love. They’ll spend the day trekking door-to-door to the homes of mostly elderly undecideded voters, hoping to mobilize the more conservative ones to come out in favor of McCain...
...extra tables with privacy screens if the booths reach capacity. "I even ordered extra clipboards," says Krisel. "If we get really jammed, we'll stick ballots on clipboards and start handing those out." So for anyone looking to predict the outcome in Ohio this year, forget exit polls and anecdotal reports--but pay attention to whether those clipboards come out in Hamilton...
Networks began exit polling--surveying people leaving voting locations about the ballots they cast--in the 1960s, and it soon became a common tool to predict winners before votes were tallied. But after NBC reported Ronald Reagan's 1980 victory over Jimmy Carter hours before polls closed on the West Coast, Congress held hearings on whether the practice depressed voter turnout, and networks vowed not to project a state's winners until polls close. (Exit polling is protected by the First Amendment...
...Another important lesson on the dangers of polling came in Israel in 1996. Despite initial exit polling suggesting Shimon Peres had been elected Prime Minister, when the actual votes were tallied it was Binyamin Netanyahu who emerged victorious. I spent six tough but fascinating years based in Jerusalem. Reminders of the day when Israel “went to bed with Peres and woke up with Bibi” were often given to caution foreign journalists against placing too much trust in Israeli opinion polls...