Word: exitement
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...fueled by sweet old ladies who have been voting Republican since Eisenhower and rugged blue collar workers who were Reagan men but who can't bring themselves to press that button and vote for McCain-Palin. They won't admit it to their friends and family--or the exit-poll people. Margie Shepherd, FREE UNION...
...thing, there has been a strict quarantine in place since 2006 to avoid early leaks of totally unreliable data - which is what happened in 2004. This year, no exit poll data was released until 5 p.m. E.T., and only a handful of National Election Pool officials were allowed to see the early data...
...exit pollsters are also getting better training to help them avoid oversampling Democrats. Here is how an exit poll is supposed to work: pollsters stand outside more than 1,000 precincts around the country, all of which have been scientifically chosen to represent a particular area. As voters leave their polling places, the interviewer tries to randomly select about 100 of them to fill out a questionnaire...
...recent years, exit pollsters have received better training to help them stick to the random selection. This is not easy to do with a large labor force that works for you only one day a year. But it may also help that exit pollsters now include some older people - which may entice more older voters to participate...
Still, the challenge of choosing precincts that accurately reflect the broader region remains immense, as does the quest to pull a truly random sample of voters. The 2006 congressional election included a bias for the Democrats once again, and several of the Democratic exit polls during the primary contest between Obama and Hillary Clinton ended up being wrong, even though some of these reforms were already in place. Still, for this election at least, the exit polls do not appear to have gone too far astray...